Calling Your Shot

This week, one my of my business partners sent me this article, which interviews three very well credentialed “market experts” that all tout calling the 2008 financial crisis. The article is filled with quotes warning of a market correction in the near future with various reasons behind their predictions.  If history is any indicator, they could very well be right.

Look, we’ve all seen the same news and stats on the current market. It’s almost 2018 and we are in the middle of a 9-year bull run.  Look at any historical chart and you will see that we have had major market corrections in almost every decade. Most of us still have the previous two market corrections since 2000 fresh in our minds. So - what’s next?...

I love playing golf with my Dad.  Often, when we get on a par 3, he will say something to the effect of,  “Alright, this one is going in the hole.”  And we all get a nice laugh as it inevitably soars right into the water.   This year, he was out playing with his usual group and as they drove up to the 13th hole, a par 3, he called his shot again, “This one is going in the hole, boys.” Except this time, he hit a beautiful shot that landed perfectly in the hole.  Hole-in-one.  He called it. (picture below)

As I read the article, I couldn’t help but think of this story and realize that I’ve read this article before. I read it every year with similar predictions.  It’s so easy for market experts to give us reasons the market will go up or down: financial policy, geopolitical risks, interest rate speculation, technical analysis, and all the other buzz words.  They will continue to call their shot, like my Dad, and eventually they may be right.  The bottom line is, even the experts don’t know when the next correction will be.

So, what should you do?

Evaluate how your portfolio is allocated.  Fully understand the amount of risk you are taking on, the volatility, and how your portfolio will react in changing markets.  Make sure you can stomach the downside risk.

Know what your purpose is for investing. We ask our clients these three questions when they want to waiver from their plan. 

  1. Has your reason for investing changed?

  2. Have your economic circumstances changed?

  3. Do you need access to this money?

If they answer yes to any one of these three, we reevaluate. Otherwise, we typically stay the course.

Take emotion out of investing. Have a professionally designed approach and stick to it.   Hindsight is always 20/20.  

by: Scott Busch